2019
Carl Müller-Crépon: State Building, Development and Conflict in 20th Century Africa
My dissertation examines the geography of state building in 20th century Africa and assesses the effects of local state capacity on development and conflict. I argue that rulers invest in building their states to increase the revenue they extract from society. Trading taxes for public services, rulers' profits are constrained by their bargaining power and transaction costs. They tilt both in their favor by investing in direct or indirect rule over internal competitors and by building transport infrastructure that connects them to their people. To maximize returns, rulers target their investments to local socio-geographic environments. The result is spatial variation in state capacity, which affects local development and conflict.
Empirically, I collect new data on colonial rule and transportation infrastructure throughout 20th century Africa to examine this argument. I find that local state capacity in Africa has strong extractive roots and patterns of indirect rule were caused by the interaction between precolonial and colonial institutions. Indirect rule and low transaction costs with the state foster economic development and peace.
Michael Brander: Stocks and Storage: Effects of Improved on-Farm Storage on Local Food Prices and Seasonal Food Security, and Effects of Trade Policies on Global Food Price Volatility
Eradicating hunger and malnutrition have gained increasing attention in the past decade, which is reflected in their prominent inclusion in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted in 2015. However, progress has been limited.
The prevalence of severe food insecurity is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of harvests leads to fluctuations in food insecurity, particularly in the lean season, the time before the harvest is brought in. In the first paper, it is argued that addressing seasonal food insecurity requires consideration of post-harvest losses during storage, a topic often neglected in the literature. The paper presents an experimental assessment where an improved storage technology that can reduce post-harvest losses is randomly allocated to farmers groups in two districts in Tanzania. The results show that the improved on-farm storage technology reduces seasonal food insecurity. The effect is most pronounced in the lean season.
The second paper addresses seasonal food price gaps, the differences between the highest and lowest prices in a harvest cycle. Seasonal price gaps can have adverse effects on food security and poverty, and their extent in Sub-Saharan Africa suggests that intertemporal arbitrage is constrained. The paper develops and experimentally analyses the argument that post-harvest storage losses constrain arbitrage. In Tanzania, smallholder farmers are randomly allocated an improved storage technology that limits post-harvest losses even in extended time of storage. Local market prices are tracked weekly. The results document significant effects of improved on-farm storage on local market prices, and a reduction of the seasonal price gap in the observation period.
Currently, the most prominent political response to volatility and fluctuations of food prices are trade policy changes by national governments, which is the focus of the third paper. Though there is a widespread concern that such actions exacerbate global food price volatility, there is little empirical evidence to underpin this claim. The paper analyzes the effects of national trade policies on volatility of food prices in global markets, using an original dataset on announced trade policy changes in the time period 2005-2017. The result show that the announcement of trade policy changes can result in short-term increases in global food price volatility.
Overall, the results of this dissertation point to the need to give increasing attention to improved on-farm storage and adequate stocks in policy, practice and research on food security and food prices, and, by extension, in implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
This research was supported by grants from the Swiss Network for International Studies (SNIS) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). Their support is gratefully acknowledged.